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Famine

Discuss when and where Wasteland 2 will be set, continuity problems, and more.

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Famine

Postby clippedwolf » May 12th, 2012, 5:01 am

The collapse of civilization, the proverbial end of the world would not be caused by all the major cities disappearing in fireballs and being leveled by shock waves. Most of the population might even flee from these centers before a nuclear war. The biggest killer in a thermo-nuclear war would be nuclear winter.
The mushroom clouds would spread fine dust into the atmosphere where it would block a bit of the sun's light from getting to the earth's surface. The global temperature would drop( a global difference of 5 C would be catastrophic) it and the earth would experience a mini-ice age. Crops would fail. Potentially for up to three years.
Large unchecked forest fires and throw in an untimely large volcanic explosion and the ash in the atmosphere could keep the global temperature down.
EDIT: Apparently, the closer to the equator the dust is injected into the air the more drastic the cooling, though the lethality of a global famine might have more to do with it's longevity, and maybe not so much its severity. Burning cities billowing smoke into the air is part of the nuclear winter model, but burning forest could do that too. High humidity might keep Russian forests from lighting up, but North American forest don't seem quite as lucky.
Millions might die in the blasts, millions more might die from sickness caused by radiation. Billions could die from starvation.
Surviving the bombs would only be the beginning.
Discuss.
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Re: Famine

Postby TΛPETRVE » May 12th, 2012, 5:44 pm

An interesting subject per se, but not really relevant for Wasteland, as it is set decades after the war, when nature is already recovering again and scarcity of resources is surprisingly little of an issue.
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Re: Famine

Postby Drool » May 12th, 2012, 7:12 pm

clippedwolf wrote:The biggest killer in a thermo-nuclear war would be nuclear winter.

No, it would be devastating weapons going off in population centers with millions of people in them. Nuclear Winter is a largely discredited theory; the effects promoted by Carl Sagan et al are believed to have been grossly overstated.
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Re: Famine

Postby clippedwolf » May 12th, 2012, 8:32 pm

Drool wrote:
clippedwolf wrote:The biggest killer in a thermo-nuclear war would be nuclear winter.

No, it would be devastating weapons going off in population centers with millions of people in them. Nuclear Winter is a largely discredited theory; the effects promoted by Carl Sagan et al are believed to have been grossly overstated.



Overstated but not irrelevant. Volcanic eruptions have spewed ash into the sky and created short term global climate changes. Estimates on global cooling after a nuke war go from a few days to the likely exaggerated few years, but the shortening of a single growing season could have big effects.
Another theory supporting famine: If I had the Russian arsenal (thousands upon thousands of nukes) and I wanted to eradicate a population I would try to detonate nukes so that the radioactive fallout hit as much of the grain belt as possible. Poison the food.
Famine would still be a major killer. The destruction of the supply train would kill many. How many people in the US know how to grow or catch their own food? The people you would meet in Wasteland would be the descendants of those prepared enough, skilled enough, lucky enough, or determined enough to survive the devastation.
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Re: Famine

Postby paultakeda » May 12th, 2012, 9:09 pm

clippedwolf wrote:Overstated but not irrelevant. Volcanic eruptions have spewed ash into the sky and created short term global climate changes. Estimates on global cooling after a nuke war go from a few days to the likely exaggerated few years, but the shortening of a single growing season could have big effects.

Correct. The first few decades will see the majority of deaths due to famine and disease. However, by the time you get to Wasteland's era, the world has stabilized its population and is well passed subsistence levels (in-game evidence: near Ranger Center is a kid's camp and the Ag Center).

This is a rather detailed analysis of what would happen in the event of a global thermonuclear exchange in 1988.

Even 1% survival means over 2 million people in the US alone. And in a society where technology persists and you have farms capable of growing tree-high broccoli stalks, you're already in a period where while the world remains dangerous, fractured into numerous polities with varying levels of technology and environmental yield, it is already stable in terms of humanity surviving and now thriving. I wouldn't doubt that the population of what was once the United States is around 50 million by the Wasteland era, 70+ years after the nuclear exchange.

Wasteland is in a period that is almost as dangerous: a period of violent growth, with thriving communities expanding into areas that emptied out during those first few decades following the nuclear war. Societies will come into contact, sometimes peaceably, often violently. New environmental dangers exist and adaptation is key. A town builds a dam and two hundred miles downstream a town dies from lack of irrigation, so there's your famine: localized and typically brought about by human interaction. It's a new wild west. That's the danger represented in the game, not the effects of a long gone nuclear fallout.
Last edited by paultakeda on May 13th, 2012, 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Famine

Postby clippedwolf » May 13th, 2012, 5:33 am

Agreeing with you that the world has moved on. This sub-forum is about lore as well as setting.
I read that whole page on the link. Author estimates a little less than a billion dead from the bombs and a little over a billion dead from famine. Interesting.
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Re: Famine

Postby paultakeda » May 13th, 2012, 9:20 am

Death from the actual bomb means you are at ground zero. Subsequent radiation sickness death means you were exposed. Targeted cities are screwed, so you can expect that the deaths in a place like Japan to be far more significant than a place like the US.

New York City would be all but decimated, with folks in Long Island possibly surviving. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is so large an area that the chances of survival are actually pretty good, relatively. LA actually is an interesting case, since I have a feeling the zone may be part of WL2. With enough warning you could head for the subway stations or the basements of earthquake proof skyscrapers to put as much concrete and earth between you and the blast to increase the chance of not getting irradiated.

Also if the bomb exploded in downtown LA the westside is far enough out that blast survival is good and assuming the nuclear exchange happened in early 1998 (assumption base on WL manual introduction), the winds are non-Santa Ana and therefore blowing east, most radiation would scatter into Pasadena and the San Gabriel Valley. Amusingly, inXile in Newport Beach would be pretty survivable. It's far enough away from the center and coastal winds will constantly blow the fallout east.

It's likely that the Antelope Valley will be targeted (Edwards AFB), but Palmdale and Lancaster south of the base may avoid a direct hit and just have to deal with radiation for a few weeks.

This also means places like the Yucca Valley and Mojave (possibly also Palm Springs) would suffer greatly from fallout, getting it from the blasts in LA and Edwards. From that article the extent of the fallout from these bombs would just barely make it to the CA border, so the area of Wasteland 1 remains completely untouched from the bombs' direct effect (happily corroborated by the WL manual). What this means though is that this area must have been devastated after the war.

I'd say that any populations in the area in the Wasteland era more than likely migrated into it years later, so the majority of the encounters would be immigrants from other areas, driven out by Guardians and Desert Rangers in their quests for expansion. There may be pockets of humanity that stuck it out, but they could be deranged, heavily mutated, or extremely violent after 70 years of surviving in one of the harshest climes in California made harsher by high radiation in wind and rain the first few years after the bombs fell.

Here famine can be more lasting and a regular occurrence compared to the area around Ranger Center, or at least the subsistence level substantially lower that the number of people in towns would be a fraction of places like Quartz and Needles.

But then if the game world extends to the coast, it might be a literal paradise west of the ruins of the 405 freeway. Little fallout, little blast damage, even Century City could survive and be a makeshift Citadel. Malibu on down to Huntington Beach would be communities of killer surfers and Venice may be a ganja heaven guarded by heavily muscled freaks.

And if Anaheim was spared, imagine a Disneyland that actually becomes a society, having locked their gates much the same way the army engineers took over a prison. A labyrinth of underground tunnels keeps the community safe with a food inventory that would make a diabetic crash at the thought of it, what could happen after 70 years? And would inXile have to call it something else to avoid getting sued? ;)
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Re: Famine

Postby Woolfe » May 13th, 2012, 6:21 pm

You have forgotten the other horseman.

Pestilence.

All those people dying of direct radiation, or famine, leave lots of dead bodies. Lots of dead bodies = breeding house for disease and bacteria.

Lots of people already weak from malnourishment, access to modern medicine mostly gone.

That article is pretty interesting as it takes everything into account. But this is a fantastical environment built in a time when people "thought" Nuclear winter would last for a lot longer, and that the radiation would hang around for longer etc.
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Re: Famine

Postby clippedwolf » May 13th, 2012, 7:55 pm

Going back to radiation, most of it would have been gone by the time the game comes around. To get dangerous amounts of radiation a person would need to stay in an irradiated place close to a ground zero for weeks in order to possibly get sick.
The exemptions would be the nuclear power plants which would no doubt be targets of nuclear strikes themselves. The three most dangerous places in the Wasteland map, in terms of radiation, would be the Palo Verde power plant in Arizona, Diablo Canyon power plant in California, and the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station also in California. High levels of iodizing radiation there could cause health damage or death from short term exposure.
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Re: Famine

Postby paultakeda » May 13th, 2012, 8:35 pm

clippedwolf wrote: and the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station also in California. High levels of iodizing radiation there could cause health damage or death from short term exposure.

Interesting to think that San Onofre actually avoids attack and remains a viable source of power. Mushroom Cloud cult, your temple calls!
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Re: Famine

Postby Woolfe » May 13th, 2012, 10:12 pm

clippedwolf wrote:Going back to radiation, most of it would have been gone by the time the game comes around. To get dangerous amounts of radiation a person would need to stay in an irradiated place close to a ground zero for weeks in order to possibly get sick.
The exemptions would be the nuclear power plants which would no doubt be targets of nuclear strikes themselves. The three most dangerous places in the Wasteland map, in terms of radiation, would be the Palo Verde power plant in Arizona, Diablo Canyon power plant in California, and the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station also in California. High levels of iodizing radiation there could cause health damage or death from short term exposure.


Being that the first game actually does have areas of "Radiated" wasteland. My assumption is that reality will be broken slightly in regards to this sort of thing.

I agree tho Nuclear power plants that are hit could actual provide a "realistic" solution to the original "radiation".

But I can't recall how extensive the radiation was? PaulT or anyone recall offhand?
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Re: Famine

Postby Drool » May 13th, 2012, 10:18 pm

Woolfe wrote:But I can't recall how extensive the radiation was? PaulT or anyone recall offhand?

Not very. There was a ring of radiation around the southern entrance to Darwin, loose radiation in and around the nuclear dump and Temple of Blood in Needles, radiation could leak from the reactor in the Mushroom Cloud Temple if you turned off the coolant, and there was a radioactive sludge pit in Base Cochise. I think that was it.

Oh, if you killed Rad Angels in the Mushroom Cloud Temple, they'd turn into piles of radioactive dust. Also, on of the techies in the temple would drop a "nuke grenade" if you stepped on his tile after killing him.

The edges of the overland map didn't specifically mention radiation when you tried to go past the boundaries, just that you saw "miles and miles of endless wasteland," which could mean anything from a radioactive wasteland to just impassable desert. Judging by the lack of Geiger counter clicking, I always assumed they more meant desert than radiation.
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Re: Famine

Postby Woolfe » May 13th, 2012, 10:21 pm

Drool wrote:
Woolfe wrote:But I can't recall how extensive the radiation was? PaulT or anyone recall offhand?

Not very. There was a ring of radiation around the southern entrance to Darwin, loose radiation in and around the nuclear dump and Temple of Blood in Needles, radiation could leak from the reactor in the Mushroom Cloud Temple if you turned off the coolant, and there was a radioactive sludge pit in Base Cochise. I think that was it.

Oh, if you killed Rad Angels in the Mushroom Cloud Temple, they'd turn into piles of radioactive dust. Also, on of the techies in the temple would drop a "nuke grenade" if you stepped on his tile after killing him.

The edges of the overland map didn't specifically mention radiation when you tried to go past the boundaries, just that you saw "miles and miles of endless wasteland," which could mean anything from a radioactive wasteland to just impassable desert. Judging by the lack of Geiger counter clicking, I always assumed they more meant desert than radiation.


Fair enough, so that makes the "power plant" idea even more feasible, as the only area without a localised solution is the stuff around Darwin.
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Re: Famine

Postby Drool » May 13th, 2012, 10:59 pm

Well... sort of.

The radiation around the Temple of Blood never made much sense to me, I'm not sure why it was there. I get the feeling it was more added as an environmental hazard than anything else as there doesn't seem to be a point to it. That's around the time you probably get your Geiger counter (either through being able to afford or from Christine), so it may have also been intended as a mini-tutorial on the counter's mechanics.

The belt around Darwin feels meta. It feels like it was added to keep from from just going due north of the Ranger Center and hitting Darwin first thing. By forcing you to take the long way around, you'll have to go past pretty much every non-locked location in the game. Finding an "in character" explanation is a little difficult. It's too neat and uniform to feel like a strike or fallout (and Darwin itself is fine), there's no damage to the ground like a strike might have. While Finster's insane, he's also behind secured blast doors, so I doubt he placed a band of radiation to the south of his town (and if he would, why not the north, too?). Frankly, the only thing I can think of is that it's some kind of contamination caused by Darwin Base. The base is underground and to the south of Darwin. Potentially something involved with his spawning pits could have leeched into the ground and contaminated it. But really, it mainly feels like a game design decision more than anything.
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Re: Famine

Postby paultakeda » May 14th, 2012, 9:16 am

Drool wrote:The radiation around the Temple of Blood never made much sense to me, I'm not sure why it was there.
[...]
The belt around Darwin feels meta.

Generally these are there for the plot. They can be explained away by Fargo pretty easily, much the way you thought up a few, and once he says it then it's canon but any of yours could equally be valid. I don't remember questioning those zones much. :)

Miles and miles of Wasteland basically meant," Bring a water canteen."

For what we are discussing here, where we go ahead and armchair history the war, I searched a bit to figure out the wind patterns for the LA basin and Southern California in general to see if what I surmised above had some merit. Just glancing at some of the wind roses for LA it looks like most of it does blow in from the sea. But then I found this:
Climate of California wrote:In the Los Angeles area, however, the Basin is almost completely enclosed by mountains on the north and east. Coupled with this is a characteristic of the air along most of the coastal area of California. The vertical temperature structure (inversion) tends to prevent vertical mixing of the air through more than a shallow layer (1,000 to 2,000 feet deep). The geographical configuration and the southerly location of the Basin permit a fairly regular daily reversal of wind direction—offshore at night and onshore during the day. With the concentrated population and industry, pollution products tend to accumulate and remain within this circulation pattern.

It sounds like the LA Basin keeps most of the pollutants inside the basin, swirling them about. That means a heavily irradiated central LA and Orange County, plus the western portion of the San Gabriel Valley. The beach communities might survive (yay for inXile in Newport Beach) but places like Disneyland may truly be mutation central.

If Edwards AFB is hit, however, you'll still see fallout irradiating the Mojave with Barstow thick with dust. Palm Springs, meanwhile, if not hit directly, looks to be in a geographically safe zone and may receive little to no fallout.

For Wasteland 70+ years later, that suggests a fairly irradiated Mojave, though not so much as to make you worry while crossing it (still need that canteen, though). Barstow may be an interesting place several generations down the line. The LA Basin sounds like it was highly irradiated for decades and may just now see new populations migrating in and perhaps encountering hardcore survivalists mutated into something... else.
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Re: Famine

Postby Woolfe » May 14th, 2012, 5:40 pm

Thats interesting... so you could potentially have a radioactive Wasteland on the map and explain it away with the high concentrations of Fallout that didn't disperse.

That could be cool, and could give a similar barrier to area entry that the first provided.
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Re: Famine

Postby clippedwolf » May 14th, 2012, 6:25 pm

Those mushroom clouds go miles into the sky, and a lot of radioactive material is in there. And of course half-life of the radioactive materials

Pop trivia time: What is the biggest danger of depleted uranium? Is it:

a: Alpha particle radiation poisoning
b: Beta particle radiation poisoning
c: Gamma particle radiation poisoning
d: Neutron radiation
e: Heavy metal poisoning
f: If it's moving at you at a high rate of speed, it is also very hard

Hint: it's not radiation


My point is a destroyed city might have other poisons in the air besides radiation. Trampling around in the ruins might kick up toxic ash and dust. Just postulating here.
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Re: Famine

Postby Woolfe » May 14th, 2012, 7:54 pm

clippedwolf wrote:Those mushroom clouds go miles into the sky, and a lot of radioactive material is in there. And of course half-life of the radioactive materials

Pop trivia time: What is the biggest danger of depleted uranium? Is it:

a: Alpha particle radiation poisoning
b: Beta particle radiation poisoning
c: Gamma particle radiation poisoning
d: Neutron radiation
e: Heavy metal poisoning
f: If it's moving at you at a high rate of speed, it is also very hard

Hint: it's not radiation


My point is a destroyed city might have other poisons in the air besides radiation. Trampling around in the ruins might kick up toxic ash and dust. Just postulating here.


Very valid as well but the comment was about the possibility of actual "radiation" hanging around. Which was a part of the original game, but as we are discovering is actually unlikely in reality. Also Radiation in the form of Fallout would occur and the idea that a high percentage of it would get trapped in a natural weather pattern appeals to me.
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Re: Famine

Postby clippedwolf » May 17th, 2012, 12:58 pm

I did a bit of reading on the Soviet offensive biological weapons program during the 80s. Allegedly, on top of agents and toxins to kill humans there might have been fungi to destroy agriculture as well. Imagine weaponized fungi designed to decimate the grain belt. If nukes were flying it might be possible that bomblettes with bio weapons might also have been dropped.
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Re: Famine

Postby Drool » May 17th, 2012, 10:50 pm

Perhaps, but we won't be in the farm belt...
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